Wednesday, November 29, 2006
coupons
As far as possible I have gone online for shopping. I believe it is very convenient and what more shops like to give very good discounts for online shoppers. One such online shopping portal is Ebates, it is easy to use and there are more than 800 name-brands stores on their site. Being a member on their site will save a online shopper on an average of 5 percent and sometimes up to 25 percent at certain stores. There are a number of famous brand stores on their site like Barnes & Noble, Office Depot, Circuit City and Target, to name just a few.
So why wait get yourself on the internet highway and start to shop. Look out for the online coupons and the hottest deals on the web. Happy Shopping.
Regional Update
CHINA Industrials Software: players in China stay positive on the outlook given increasing IT investment and global outsourcing. Kingdee and Chinasoft are top players. Century Sunshine (BUY/HK$5.23/Target: HK$11.70) Re-rating on the way, after obtaining loan from IFC. Maintain BUY with target price raised from HK$6.50 to HK$11.70, based on DCF.HONG KONG HK Exchanges & Clearing (BUY/HK$65.70/Target: HK$69.70) 9M06: Strong growth in both turnover and net profit. Expect further share price upside. Next Media (BUY/HK$4.06/Target: HK$5.50) Next Media will announce its 1HFY07 financial results at the end of Nov 06. We expect net profit in 1HFY07 to be similar to that in 1HFY06.MALAYSIA AMMB Holdings (SELL/RM2.90/Fair: RM2.20) 2QFY07: Net earnings of RM100m, another flat quarter. Higher operating income was offset by high provision. Auto NPLs rising. IOI Corporation (HOLD/RM18.30) 1QFY07: Net profit of RM255.7m, +17% qoq and +47% yoy. Earnings boosted by higher CPO ASP and sales volume from manufacturing divisions. Malayan Banking (BUY/RM11.50/Target: RM13.20) 1QFY07: Net profit of RM576b, down qoq and yoy. Results below expectation. Earnings were dragged down by higher loan loss provision. Scomi Group (HOLD/ RM1.03) Speculation that Scomi Group will be privatised at RM1.20 to RM1.50 could drive up the share price in the short term.SINGAPORE Armarda Group (SGX-MAS RESEARCH INCENTIVE SCHEME) (HOLD/S$0.04) 3Q06: Margins eroded by more competition. Memory Devices (BUY/S$0.305/Target: S$0.40) 3Q06: Focused on growth for DRAM Modules. OCBC (BUY/S$7.30/Target: S$8.40) 3Q06: Core net profit rose a robust 21% qoq, with the significant widening of net interest margin a positive surprise. Olam International (HOLD/S$2.09) 1QFY07: Net profit expanded 23.8% yoy, on the back of continued strength in revenue growth. But valuation remains higher than peers'. Sinomem Technology (BUY/S$0.995/Target: S$1.41) 3Q06 results: No surprises. City Developments (HOLD/S$11.60) 3Q06: PATMI up 115% on stronger contributions from development properties. Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SELL/ S$2.21/Fair: S$1.90) Passenger handling was relatively healthy, but cargo handling delivered a weak performance in lead-in to holiday period. Sino-Environment (BUY/S$1.34/Target: S$1.39) Project delays. No cause for panic. Wheelock Properties (HOLD/S$2.27) 2QFY07: PATMI up 239% on stronger contributions from development properties.THAILAND Bangkok Expressway Co. (HOLD/ Bt24.2) 3Q06: Net profit increased 9% yoy due to higher traffic volume and extraordinary gains from its investments. Maintain HOLD. Bamrungrad Hospital (SELL//Bt36.25/Fair: Bt20.00) 3Q06: Equity account helped its earnings grow 16%. Core earnings growth remained slow. Hemaraj Land and Development (BUY/Bt1.04/Target: Bt1.48) 3Q06: Sales recovered while margins improved but a change in tax calculation put pressure on net profit. 9M06 growth was still 100%. Land and Houses (HOLD/Bt8.45) 3Q06: Net profit of Bt532m (-63% yoy and 27% qoq) was the lowest quarterly result since 2002. 9M06 profit halved yoy to Bt1.97b. Power Line Engineering (BUY?Under Review/Bt7.55/Target: Bt8.05) 3Q06: Posted a loss after gross margin collapsed. Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (SELL/Bt6.05/Fair: Bt4.80) 3Q06: Despite improvements, the company still had thin margins. Krung Thai Bank (BUY/Bt13.6/Target: Bt18.0) Additional provisions under IAS 39 will be largely offset by the bank's significantly stronger profitability improvement. FY06 earnings cut by 7%.TALKING POINT: MALAYSIA : Gaming - Undervalued Blue Chip
Olam
A Taste of What's to Come…
1Q growth of 24% sets the scene for a good year ahead. Olam reports 1Q net profit of S$8.1m, above our forecast of S$7-8m. Full-year forecast of S$106.6m is increased marginally. Olam continuing to deliver earnings within (bullish) expectations will ensure continued outperformance, in our view.
Net contribution (NC) per ton rose 10%. The net contribution per ton increased
10% in the quarter as Olam increasingly provides value-added services for its clients. This is an important kicker to earnings to accompany rising volumes.
Volume growth reached 21%. Global volume growth is in the 3-4% range; Olam
therefore continues to take market share from incumbent statutory boards and international trade houses. We believe Olam is uniquely placed to continue to drive volume growth through a combination of a unique service offering and strategy to enter new product and geographic adjacencies.
Increasing target price to S$2.49. We have increased our target price from
S$1.93 to S$2.49 on the back of our higher forecast 3-year CAGR of 23.2% (previously 21%), higher ROE assumption (up 30bps) and importantly by rolling forward our valuation to June 2008. We view Olam as a strategic LT investment. Our experience suggests investors hold Olam for its bullish secular growth outlook and niche positioning, which is well protected by high barriers to entry.
Key risk - priced to perfection. Delivery of the 25% 5-year CAGR target should
ensure continual share price appreciation at these multiples; however, slippage is not an option. An emerging growth profile less than this may cause the stock to de-rate to market valuations.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
russian brides
I am sure you have heard of Vietnamese Brides but have you heard about russian brides. Yes although it takes time for a relationship to grow into marriage, but most Eastern European ladies are looking for a life long partner and to settle down. Most of them put family first and then career next. While most of them rather get married then to move from one person to another before settling down.
The divorce rate in marriages with Russian women tends to be much lower than with marriages in America, UK and Australia. Generally the russian brides are more attractive and most look like models. Every year you find millions of men from US, Canada and Australia meet, marry and admire brides from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and other countries of Eastern Europe. And many of these marriages lead to successful families with beautiful and intelligent children.
Synear
3Q06: Strong Growth Driven by New Products and Tax Exemption
The results were largely in line with our expectation. 3Q06 revenue grew strongly 25% yoy to Rmb274m, and net profit surged 95% yoy to Rmb63m, driven by revenue growth and tax exemption. 9M06 net profit increased 55% yoy to Rmb277m.
Revenue grew strongly 25% yoy. Besides organic growth, it was mainly due to expansion of distribution network (8% yoy increase in the number of distributors) and new product launch. With new capacity of 72,000tonne, we expect strong growth trend to continue in 4Q06. Gross margin was improved slightly from 30% in 3Q05 to 32%, driven by higher-margin new products and product mix improvement. Including the benefits of full tax exemption starting from 2Q06, net profit surged by 95% to Rmb63m.
Improvement of product mix. During 3Q06, Other Quick-frozen Products Segment enjoyed 33% yoy growth, much higher than other two segments. Besides a smaller base, we believe the growth was driven by a wider product variety that could cater different taste preference. Hence we expect the strong growth to maintain in the following quarters. Furthermore, gross margin of this segment were 5-10% higher than that of other two segments, and thus we expect current margin is sustainable or could be even improved slightly given the shift of product mix towards higher-margin products.
Strong cash balance with injection of IPO proceeds. The IPO proceeds in this quarter were Rmb640m, which strongly improved the cash position for Synear. The net cash position was Rmb785m, among which Rmb300m will be used as CAPEX for new capacity expansion in FY07-08. Finance costs was reduced by 31% yoy along with the decreasing bank borrowings from Rmb211m to Rmb133m.
Valuation. We adjusted our forecasts by 3%, 2% and 2% for FY06-08 separately, to reflect the improvement of product mix, and correspondently fine tune our target price to $1.60. Based on our FY06 earnings forecast of Rmb382m, the stock is trading at 16x FY06 PE and 13x FY07 PE, deep discount to the average valuation of other branded F&B companies listed in Hong Kong and Singapore. Reiterate BUY
Regional Update (13 Nov 06)
CHINA Sinopec (BUY/HK$5.65/Target: HK$7.00) Valuation will be re-rated as the stock will be added to HSI. Coming new refined oil pricing system will stabilise margins. Target price raised. China Power (BUY/HK$4.11/Target: HK$4.30) Placing out 470b new shares, or 13.04% of total capital after issuing. EPS will be diluted by 13% from 2007 onwards. Maintain BUY. CSCL (SELL/HK$2.06/Fair: HK$1.50) 3Q06 operating figures are in line with our forecast. The operating environment is still difficult for container liners. Maintain SELL.HONG KONG Hang Seng Index Quarterly review. Hang Seng China H-Financials Index To be launched on 27 Nov 06 . HK Exchanges & Clearing (BUY/HK$64.20/Target: HK$69.70) Strong growth in 3Q06 earnings expected given the bullish market. Texhong Textile (BUY/HK$1.50/Target: HK$2.40) Benefitting from geographical expansion. Overall profitability boosted by lower manufacturing costs. Risk of earnings dilution lowered.MALAYSIA Plantation Strong CPO prices reflected the lower inventory level in October. Prices to remain strong as production is entering seasonal low production months. UEM Builders (BUY/RM1.23/Target: RM1.80) Groundbreaking ceremony for Second Penang Bridge yesterday. Raising FY07 and FY08 earnings by 13% and 24%. Target price revised to RM1.80. Resorts World (HOLD/RM11.80) Star Cruises is raising HK$1.6b (RM750m) for the purchase of two new ships via an issuance of a 7-for-25 rights issue at HK$1.08/share. Warrants Leveraging on warrants.SINGAPORE Hi-P International (BUY/S$0.82/Target Price: S$1.06) 3Q06: Below par performance. SC Global (BUY/S$2.54/Target: S$2.08 - Under Review) 3QFY06: PATMI down 51% to S$0.9m. Synear Food (BUY/S$1.14/Target: S$1.60) 3Q06 revenue grew 25% yoy to Rmb274m, and net profit surged 95% yoy to Rmb63m.THAILAND Advanced Info Service (HOLD/Bt86.5) 3Q06: Results are disappointing. Expect no major improvement until next year. Maintain HOLD. BigC Supercenter (HOLD/ Bt40.0) 3Q06: Net profit weakened qoq due to the seasonal factor but still improved 22.3% yoy. 9M06 profit rose 16.8%. Home Product Center (BUY - Under Review/Bt5.15/Target: Bt4.95) 3Q06: Profit weakened qoq but improved yoy. 9M06 profit of Bt419m (+20.9%) accounted for 73% of our full-year forecast. ITV Public Company (SELL/Bt2.7/Fair: Bt1.4) 3Q06: Results plunged qoq and yoy. Maintain SELL as the worst is not over. LPN Development (BUY/Bt5.55/Target: Bt5.86) 3Q06: Net profit weakened in line with expectation. 9M06 net profit of Bt597m (+26.8%) represented 80% of our full-year forecast. Magnecomp Precision Technology (HOLD/Bt2.32) 3Q06: another poor quarter. FY06 loss estimate raised as breakeven will be delayed to 1Q07. FY07-08 net profit trimmed to reflect high Bt/US$ rate. MCOT (HOLD - Under Review/Bt28.50) 3Q06: Impressive performance under previous management team. Uncertainties over capability and vision of new management team. Shin Satellite (BUY/Bt8.75/Target: Bt25.32 ? Under Review) 3Q06: Despite the operating loss, performance improved. A turnaround can be expected next year. Ticon Industrial Connection (BUY/Bt19.0/Target: Bt25.3) 3Q06: Results dropped back to normal. 9M06 profit of Bt760m (+22.7%), accounting for 90% of FY06 forecast.TALKING POINT: Singapore Post (SPOST SP) - Steep discount to fair valuation
Monday, November 13, 2006
Disney World Tickets
Last Oct, I brought my family to Disney World Hong Kong. It was great to see the opening of Disney World. Now this summer vacation, I will be going to Orlando, Florida to Disney World again and I am getting my Disney World Tickets on line. They are a few options when buying tickets online, the tickets are available for many different days and options from one to ten days for what is called, "Disney Magic Your Way". Take note they a guaranteed to be the lowest price as compared to anywhere else.
We are going to see the latest attractions at Disney where you have Disneyquest, Downtown Disney Pleasure Island, Disney's Typhoon Lagoon, Blizzard Beach Water Parks, and Disney theme park. We are also going to pop-in to Universal Studio and Islands of Adventure, since we are already there. So see you and your family at Disney World.
Stocks to thing about
Singapore bourse- Unless one was long Sing Tel or select property stocks, the recent rally would not have had much an impact for most. For now, the best strategy would be to buy on dips and to sell into rallies. The manner in which the ST index has unfolded so far suggests support near 2720-2725 with the potential for another move towards 2770 or so.With this in mind, we take a look at the support levels for some of the key stocks.
1. Ausgroup- Stock had rallied sharply to a high of $0.515 and has eased back to a low of $0.46. Volume has been steadily declining as the stock corrected and this indicates that there is no major distribution on the stock. This is a proxy play on the oil and gas sector, which we think will
re-emerge again judging by crude oil's resilience. Recommend accumulating
on weakness at $0.46-0.465. A retest and break above previous high of
$0.515 appears highly likely.
2. Sino Environment- The stock had rallied to a high of $1.37 and subsequently declined by 4 consecutive days to close at $1.22 on Wednesday. Yesterday, the stock closed unchanged at $1.222 after correcting to a low of $1.18. Watch for support near $1.17-1.18, which is the zone of an upward trendline. The risk of a breakdown appear low at this stage.
3. MMI- Stock had rallied to a high of $1.14 on 2nd November on expectation of strong first quarter results but however quickly reversed to close at $1.00 yesterday. Prior consolidation low near $0.97-0.98 should provide support. The stock closed at $0.995 yesterday.
4. Wheelock properties- The stock consolidated in a flag formation and then broke out of that formation, 3 days ago. A pullback towards $2.23-2.24 is likely today and that would cover an earlier upward gap. Recommend accumulating the stock near gap level of $2.24-2.26 on expectation of a retest towards prior high of $2.42.
5. DBS- After reaching a high of $21.60, the stock has corrected back to the $20.00 level and underperformed in the latest rally. Immediate support is estimated at $19.60-19.70. $19.60 is the 50% retracement of the move from $17.50-21.60. and as such a likely support level. A rally from this support level could potentially bring the stock up back towards gap level of $21.20. Recommend accumulating the stock between $19.70-19.90.
6. Celestial Nutrifood- The stock has corrected from a high of $1.82 to a low of $1.68 today. The $1.67-1.68 level is the zone of a trendline support. Today's pullback is on relatively low volume and as such we do not expect a trend reversal at this stage. Consider accumulating the stock near $1.67-1.68..
Hong Leong Bank
Hong Leong Bank (SELL/RM5.30/Target: RM4.80)
1QFY07: Earnings flat despite higher NIM
Hong Leong Bank (HLB) reported a net profit of RM144.4m in 1QFY07, flat yoy and qoq. Results were within our and market expectations. Despite better net interest margin (NIM), earning was flat as non-interest income (non-II) declined and higher operating cost.
Lower earnings despite better margin. HLB reported higher NIM of 2.00% in 1QFY06, vs 1.76% for FY06 or 1.94% for 4QFY06 and a loan growth of 1.4% qoq. This has improved the net interest income (NII) by 6.4% qoq and 25.3% yoy to RM297.3m. However this did not translate into higher net earnings for HLB in 1Q due to: -
o Non-II dropped. Non-II down in 1QFY07 to RM88.3m (-31.5% qoq and
-14.0% yoy). Lower non-II was due to unrealised losses of RM14.3m on revaluation of securities and lower advisory income from IPO deals.
o Higher operation income. Operating cost rose 14% yoy and qoq to
RM170.1m on the back of higher personal and infrastructure cost. This has increased HLB's cost-to-income ration to 40.3% in 1QFY07, up from 37.3% for FY06.
o Yoy, loan loss provision (LLP) jump. Yoy lower earnings were dragged
down by higher LLP. LLP was up 61.1% yoy (but down 43.4% qoq) on provision made for non-performing loans (NPLs) of 5-7 years and over the 7 years as per regulator stipulations.
Loan grew 1.4% qoq. Loans grew 1.4% in 1QFY07. Key growth mainly came from housing loan and consumption credit, which up 5.0% and 15.6% respectively.
Auto loan continued to contract for third consecutive quarters as a results of the slower auto sales and competition among the banks. Gross NPL ratio improved slightly from 4.7% in FY06 to 4.5% with lower absolute NPLs of RM1.3b (-2.9% qoq), mainly on reduced business NPLs but auto NPL showing signs of deterioration (+8.4% qoq).
Loans and NPLs breakdown
(Embedded image moved to file: pic00491.pcx)
Source: HLB
Maintain EPS estimates for HLB for FY07, FY08 and FY09 are 40.0sen
(+10%yoy), 43.4sen (+8.4%) and 47.0sen (+8.3%) respectively. Higher
earnings growth for FY07 is mainly driven by lower loan loss provision (-20% yoy, or ?RM49.8m). HLB remains a SELL.
Hanukkah Gift Baskets
Hanukkah is just around the corner and this is a great time to start planning for that Hanukkah Gift Baskets for your close families and friends. I have always search the internet to get the best offer on Gift Baskets and have found the Kosher Gift Baskets to be the best. Every product in the basket is certified by the Rabbinical Councils to be 100 % Kosher. Elegantly wrapped in traditional colors, they are excellent gift not only for Hanukkah but for every occasion like Rosh Hashanah Gift Baskets, Shiva Gift Baskets, Judaica Gift Baskets and many more. The baskets are a great gift to help celebrate the festival of lights. So don’t wait check out the website.
Increase in Investment in a PRC Company Distributing IBM Products and Solutions
SINGAPORE – 10 November 2006 – listed on Singapore Main board Karin Technology Holdings Limited (“Karin”)(嘉靈控股集團有限公司)announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Karin Technology (BVI) Limited, (“KTBVI”) has entered into a supplemental agreement to further subscribe 3,138 ordinary shares of US$1 each in Take Talent Investments Limited (“Take Talent”). With this issue, KTBVI will hold about 35% equity interest in Take Talent.
Take Talent has 100% equity interest in嘉润達資訊系统(深圳)有限公司. (the “Company”), a company incorporated in People’s Republic of China (PRC) which distributes IBM computer products and peripherals, and offering IBM data storage management solutions in the PRC.
With Karin already offering HP and Sun Microsystems data storage solutions, this new investment will enable Karin to increase its customer base by adding IBM data storage solutions into their range of product offerings. In addition, the new investment will also allow the Company to tap into the market on the distribution of IBM‘s products and expand its regional presence by gaining access to the PRC markets.
Mr Phillip Ng (伍钰榮), Executive Chairman of Karin said, “This initiative is in line with our efforts to increase our market share and foothold in the PRC. With the new distribution rights and channels that this new investment brings, we will be able to gain access to new customer bases in the PRC and offer our customers a more comprehensive array of products and services to suit their variety of needs.”
About Karin’s performance to date, Mr Philip Ng added, “Karin has performed well for the first quarter of FY 2006/2007, turnover for Karin approximately increased of 20% over the same period in 2005 as we benefited from the upturn and better margins in the electronic components/mobile phone industries. With our Group’s expansion into distribution of IBM’s products and peripherals, it will provide a new source of income and a more balanced portfolio of higher value products and services for us.”
About Karin
Listed on the Mainboard of Singapore Exchange, Karin Technology Holdings Limited (http:www.karingroup.com) is a leading IT & Electronic solutions company engaging in electronic component and computer distribution and outsourcing services such as IC software design application and data storage management solutions.
With a clientele base of nearly 1000 customers from various segments of the electronic industry including the communications, computer, electrical, utility, watch and toy segments in Hong Kong and the PRC, Karin endeavors to offer a diversified range of value-adding services to aid their customers’ product development and manufacturing processes.
Wilmar International (WLIL.SI)
Return Potential: 31%
Raising price target, reiterate Conviction Buy
Source of opportunity
Wilmar's share price has risen by 47% in absolute terms in the past three months, however, we believe there is still more upside to the share price. Plantation stocks have re-rated over the last month and on our estimates Wilmar still has one of the lowest P/E multiples in the sector. We believe that the discount should narrow as the company delivers on its bio-diesel earnings in 2007E. In addition, with average trading liquidity of US$12mn/day, Wilmar could also become a liquid proxy for the palm oil plantations sector
Catalyst
1) Successful bio-diesel implementation in 2007 Wilmar's first bio-diesel plant is due for completion in January 2007.
2) Rising CPO prices We continue to expect a multi-year uptrend in CPO (crude palm oil) prices on the back of bio-diesel demand.
Valuation
We have raised our 12-month price target to S$1.80 from S$1.44, based on a blended 15x 2007E P/E (using 18x for non bio-diesel earnings and 9x for bio-diesel earnings). Our implied 2007E plantations sector multiple of 18x is based on price targets for our plantations universe. Wilmar was only listed in August and does not have much of a trading history but we note that historically plantation stocks have traded between 3x and 33x forward P/E multiples.
Key risks
A potential EU ban on palm oil bio-diesel is the key risk but we believe this is unlikely as it may contravene WTO rules. There may also be some short term profit-taking on the stock, which we would view as a buying opportunity.
Friday, November 10, 2006
increase link popularity
What is every website owner is after? Yes they want more and more traffic to their website. Having you like me search the whole internet to find the best company that can promote your site at the lowest cost but with high returns.
Are you still searching and searching. Why not understand first how search engine rank your site and how to get you site to hit number one at all search engine. It is the algorithm of this search engine that determines your ranking and for example takes Google. Google is number one in driving traffic to websites. Google builds on what we call link popularity. With more links to your website your ranking also goes up. The other issue is where this link is placed in your website and Google gives more value to the location of the links. Google actually remove the value of the link if it placed at the bottom of the website. The best way to increase link popularity is through Blogs. Blogs naturally are filled with valuable content that the search engines crave and they also naturally link to other websites they talk about within their posts.
So one way to increase link popularity is to engage companies like Blogitive. Blogitive has over 2000 Blogs where Blogger are engaged to write about your web release and key links are used in the blog posting. These keywords will be able to increase link popularity to your websites. This is the best way to get your website in the top search engine rankings.
Noble
3Q06 : Net profit fell a sharp 64% yoy, but a milder 6% qoq
Noble reported 3Q06 net profit of US$23.5m, down 64% yoy, which is below
expectations. This was due to a US$53.7m yoy decline in “other revenue and gains” as profits were recognised in 3Q05 for the disposal of certain long-term investments. Core earnings did not increase as much as expectations as the chartering division remains weak.
Revenue expanded 20% yoy, driven by the agriculture and energy segments. The agriculture and energy segments reported revenue expansion of 29% and 33% yoy respectively, and collectively accounted for 74% of 9M06 revenue. Within the agriculture segment, the grain division recorded 9M06 tonnage expansion of 21.4% and revenue increase of 24.3%. Noble leveraged on its origination and sourcing strengths in South America to build sales growth. The energy segment (49% revenue share for 3Q06) recorded substantial growth in tonnage and revenue due to the clean fuels and coal and coke divisions. The carbon credits division has additional new contracts to purchase certificates of emissions reductions (CERs).
Logistics division dragged down overall revenue expansion. The logistics segment recorded revenue contraction of 22% yoy, due to lower revenues at the
chartering division, which was due to lower freight prices and reduced tonnage
levels. The metals, minerals and ores segment revenue contraction of 6% yoy
also slowed down overall revenue expansion.
Gross profit of US$84.1m was down 14% yoy. The decline was mainly attributed to significantly lower contributions from the chartering division. This offseted the stronger results for metals, minerals and ores segment, agriculture and energy segments.
Noble recorded other revenue and gains of US$5.6m, against US$59.3m in
3Q05. Profits related to the disposal of certain long term investments were recorded in 3Q05.
We expect the energy and agriculture segments to drive Noble’s growth
over the next few quarters. The energy segment, which has a 68% share of 1H06 gross profit, will continue to expand on the back of Noble’s several investments in ethanol production facilities in the US in 1H06. The agriculture segment, with a 14% share of 1H06 gross profit, should also expand further along with the recent acquisitions.
We cut our FY06 net profit forecast by 14.6% to US$121.3m to primarily factor
in weaker 2H06 earnings. Our FY07 net profit forecast has also been cut by
17.4%. Despite the cuts, Noble trades at a FY07 PE of 13.3x, which is lower
than the 29x forward PE for peers like Olam and Li & Fung. Our target price
has been cut to S$1.35, based on 15x FY07 PE. Maintain BUY.
HLF
3Q06 : Net interest income recorded a mild sequential increase HLF reported 3Q06 net profit of S$25.3m, up 39.4% yoy, with growth coming from the writeback of provisions. Operating profit before allowances was up a marginal 5.4%, which better reflects earnings from core operations.
Net interest income expanded sequentially. Net interest income of S$42.3m was flat yoy. However, this is an improvement versus 1Q06’s S$40.4m, and 2Q06’s S$42.0m. It appears that the worst for net interest income is over. With SIBOR seen to have peaked, we believe HLF could continue to record further sequential increases in net interest income.
Loans expanded. HLF recorded a 4.9% yoy loan expansion, and a mild 0.6% qoq contraction. Looking ahead, we expect the pick-up in the housing market to contribute to HLF’s loans to SMEs in the construction and property development business and also to increasing home mortgages. With improving credit conditions, HLF wrote-back net allowance for loans and advances amounting to S$3.5m. Despite this write-back, HLF still has adequate individual and collective allowances for its loan portfolio. No dividend was declared for 3Q06.
Expect good dividends ahead. Regulations allow HLF to disburse up to 75% of net profit as dividend. We believe HLF will aim to utilise as much of its Section 44 tax credits as possible. Provisions written back in 1Q05 has given HLF the option to dish out 36¢ gross dividend – HLF has declared only 15¢ special dividend thus far. Hence, there is another 21¢ of special dividend that could potentially be declared over the next few quarters. On an ongoing basis, the 18¢ ordinary dividend pa appears to be sustainable. We are forecasting an attractive FY06 dividend of 33¢ per share (33¢ was declared for FY05), giving a yield of 9.8%.
Raising earnings forecast. We have raised our FY06 net profit forecast by 3.5% to S$93.6m, due to the write-back of provisions in 3Q06. We expect the sequential increase in net interest income to persist as HLF continues to work on improving the yield from its loan portfolio.
Acquisition prospects remain. HLF’s NTA is S$3.13 ps. Our S$5.00 price target is based on 1.6x P/NTA. We believe HLF is an attractive acquisition target by QFBs which want to expand their operations in Singapore. As OCBC paid 1.8x P/NTA for Keppel Capital Holdings and UOB paid 1.6x P/NTA for OUB, we feel that our price target of 1.6x P/NTA is fair.
internet marketing blog
The latest in internet marketing blog has come to town and it is called NetResults. This is a platform that keep up with regular updates on topics covering Interactive marketing space including search engine marketing, web development, media advertising, and Web 2.0 marketing.
Anyone interested in submitting articles or press releases to NetResults should send it to them. Eventually this will be a site where all bloggers and non-bloggers can go and read articles on interactive marketing.
I have check out their site and found an article covering Google latest called Google Checkout. Don’t let m explain to you what this article is, go check for yourself.
China Wheel Holdings
3Q06: Margins recovered
China Wheel, the China based aluminium wheel producer, reported 39%yoy higher net profit to Rmb24m in 3Q06 and revenue grew in tandem to Rmb204m (55%yoy higher). Gross margins are well maintained at 17.6% for 3Q06 (17.4% 3Q05) although aluminium prices rose 39%yoy.
Margins recovered. Aluminium price has stablised after 2Q06’s hike and domestic aluminium price is selling around Rmb19,000 per tonne since this July. China Wheel’s gross margin has recovered from 1Q06’s 11.8% to 3Q06’s 17.6%. This is mainly due to higher ASPs (Rmb233 in FY05 vs Rmb275 in 9M06) as China Wheel has been able to pass some of (50%) of the raw material cost to its customers.
Good order book lift sales. Order book continues to be full after its ramping up capacity to 2.8m wheels per annum. We estimate this additional 600,000 wheels capacity will converge quickly to full utilisation and will contribute to higher sales. Among its 3 business segments, Export sales are taking more shares in terms of total revenue. Higher proportion of export sales will reduce its business risk, as most of its foreign customers are renowned international auto manufacturers. Moreover, export sales enjoy highest margins at around 19%.
Near term catalysts. 1) China Wheel’s closets competitor – Zhe Jiang Wan Feng will be listing on China’s A share market, its will be priced within the range of 18.6x to 20.7x FY06 PE. Wan Feng (002085 CH) has roughly same bottom line as China Wheel (FY05 net profit Rmb55m) and its listing will have a good impact on China Wheel. 2) Price of alumina (the raw material to produce aluminium) continues to drop (40% lower yoy) and aluminium price is expected to drop accordingly (usually has 3-6 month lag).
Valuation. Due to higher sales and well maintained margins, we lift net profit forecast of FY06 from 71m to 79m, DCF based target price also lifted to S$0.66, translating into 9.8x FY06 PE and 8.1x FY07 PE. Reiterate BUY.
Ho Bee Investment
Robust sales and earnings growth. The Group reported 3QFY06 revenue of S$54.5m (9M06: S$229m), up 100.6% over 3QFY05, while PATMI rose 30.3% to S$9.9m (9M06: S$47.5m). Contributing significantly to the revenue increase is the income generated by the Group’s property development activities which registered a turnover of S$220.5m in 9M06, up 94% from S$113.4m in the previous corresponding period.
Sentosa Cove still the main driver. Ho Bee is reaping rich rewards as the pioneer developer in Sentosa Cove. Sales of its Sentosa projects have been excellent. Three of its five Sentosa projects are now almost fully sold, but profits have yet to be recognised. A large portion of these profits will be recognised in 4QFY06.
More upside to the stock. We are currently reviewing our target price. We continue to like Ho Bee for its strong positioning in Sentosa as well as its astute management. We maintain our FY06 earnings forecast of S$77.1m. Upcoming Sentosa projects namely Baywater Collection and Paradise Island are expected to be launched at record prices, which would bode well for the Group’s earnings growth well into FY08/09.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
personalized wedding favors
Do be the lost one when comes to weddings. Everyone in on the internet highways when searching for cheap, personalized wedding favors as well as groomsman and bridesmaid gifts. Many items with free personalization can be found at this site. So check out shopforweddings.com.
You can find various categories such as under Reception on the left column Wedding Cameras, Decorations, Place Card Holders, Cake Serving Sets, Cake Toppers, Toasting Glasses, Table Centerpieces, Garters. Find something that suits your taste, there is some thing for everyone.
China Hongxing Sports
3Q06: Commencement of new plant recovers margins
China Hongxing reported its 3Q06 results with a 42.1% yoy rise in net profit to
Rmb34m and a 55.3% yoy rise in revenue. Gross margin is recovered from
2Q06’s 35.2% to 38.6% by the commencement of its new plant this August as
well as the higher ASPs.
Weaker qoq results. Qoq results are lower as 3Q usually is the weakest quarter
within a year since China’s three 7-day long holidays are in 1Q, 2Q and 4Q of
a typical calendar year respectively. Holiday sales are usually crucial to
consumer goods.
Higher administrative and financial expenses affect net profit.
Administrative expenses are more than three fold mainly due to Rmb5m one-off
RCPS commission. Financial expenses also rose due to interest amortization
and dividend payment for RCPS mounting to around Rmb11m.
Outlook. All bad news are here and now 4Q06 should be a quarter full of
expectation since 4th quarter usually experiences highest sales in a year. The
successful trade fair in September has harvested more orders. ASPs of its
sports shoes are rising (6-7% higher qoq) with higher brand recognition and
distribution network is still expanding fast. Fundamentals of Hongxing remain
strong and we raised our FY06 forecast from Rmb182.5m to Rmb196.7m. DCF
based target price also lifted to S$2.09 translating into 20.8x FY06 PE and 13.3x
FY07 PE. Reiterate BUY.
Dow Jones
SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - Citigroup has lowered its rating for Venture
Corp to "sell" from "buy," saying the stock is trading at a
premium to
peers while near-term catalysts are scarce.
It, however, raised its target price for the stock to 13.20 sgd from
12.50.
"Our thesis that Venture's long-term growth prospects are improving
remains intact but the 38 pct rally in the share price in the past three
months more than factors in organic earnings growth and GES International's
contribution," Citigroup said in a note.
On Friday, Venture reported third-quarter net profit of 59 mln sgd, up
14 pct from a year ago, but lower than market expectations.
"In addition, lackluster fourth-quarter guidance further underpins our
view that upside surprises are unlikely," said Citigroup, noting that
Venture's valuations appear stretched.
"Since pre-2004 margins/earnings per share growth/return on equity are
not likely to be repeated, we see no supporting reasons to re-rate the
stock higher."
But the brokerage said that next year may turn out to be a transition
year for Venture as it merges with GES International.
It expects Venture to post 234 mln sgd in net profit this year, growing
to 279 mln next year.
At 11.21 am, Venture was down 0.20 sgd or 2.07 pct at 14.20 on volume
of 377,000 shares.
degree online program
I always wanted to complete my University education and I found that it was possible through degree online program. One particular University that caught my eye was Capella University, founded in 1993. It is an accredited online university that offers graduate degree programs in the field of business, information technology, education, human services and psychology, as well as bachelor’s degree programs in business and information technology.
A leading online University with over 16,000 students from all 50 states as well as from 63 countries world-wide.
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China Precision Technology
3Q06: Demand for Tuner Components exceeded expectations
CPT reported net profit of Rmb25m (+30.8% yoy) on revenue of Rmb162.1m (+34.2% yoy). This is 14.2% higher than our net profit forecast of Rmb21.9m. Demand for Tuner Components exceeded expectations. Sales for Tuner Components increased 28.5% yoy and 12% qoq to Rmb114.1m in 3Q06. This is due to seasonally stronger demand for LCD TVs, plasma TVs and set-top boxes. CPT managed to grow order size with existing customers Sharp, Thomson and LG. Sony has also given more orders.
Sales for Connectors and Components for Telecommunication & Consumer Electronics grew 100% yoy to Rmb19.6m. CPT successfully cross-sell precision components and connectors to existing customer for Tuner Components such as Sharp. It also secured increased orders from Ningbo BIRD, Amphenol and ABB Group. Sales for electroplating services for automotive components grew 52.2% yoy to Rmb17.2m due to increasing orders from Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and China-based automakers.
Margins recovery. Gross margin expanded from 34.9% in 2Q06 to 38.3% in 3Q06. CPT renegotiated selling prices with customers and secured price adjustment to factor-in higher copper prices. It continues to work closely with customers to replace copper with steel for F-connectors and IEC-connectors used in tuners. CPT streamlined the connector business and dropped some China-based customers in cases where margins are low. Profitability for electroplating services also improved due to higher capacity utilisation.
Riding on growing automotive industry in China. CPT gained a reputation for providing high quality electroplating services. This is achieved through technologies transferred from Japanese partner Uehara. CPT will transfer its electroplating operations to wholly owned subsidiary Ningbo Zhongjun Automobile Parts. Ningbo Zhongjun Automobile Parts will enter into JVs, mergers or acquisitions to accelerate growth in the automotive business.
Generates positive cash flow. CPT generated positive cash flow from operations of Rmb73.2m in 9M06, an increase of 95.5% yoy. CPT has cash of Rmb134.8m as at Sep 06. Net cash/share is S$0.06.
Reiterate BUY. We have raised our FY06 net profit forecast by 2.9% to
Rmb88.9m due to slight improvement in margins. The stock trades at FY07 PE of only 8.2x, a significant discount compared to other China plays. Our target price is S$0.58 based on our 3-stage DCF model.
Regional Update (7 Nov 06)
CHINA Shandong Weigao (BUY/HK$6.99/Target: HK$9.30) After the announcement of co-operation with Biosensors, share price hit previous target price. Maintain BUY with target price raised to HK$9.30.HONG KONG HSBC cut interest rates HSBC surprised the market by cutting key interest rates by 25bp. Property stocks will be prime beneficiaries. We continue to overweight property stocks.INDONESIA Bakrie Telecom (NOT RATED/Rp195) 9M06: BTEL reported net profit turnaround of Rp51.9b as a result of huge jump in revenue from an increase in the number of mobile phone subscribers. Mobile-8 (NOT RATED/IPO: Rp200-240) The IPO is expected to raise Rp1.1t-1.5t through offer of 3.9b shares, representing 19.9% of enlarged capital. Technical Key resistance at 1,670-1,680 for JCI.MALAYSIA Property Sector Significant regulatory change in SJER Masterplan is the creation of two FAZs. Closest large landbank owners are Mulpha Int'l and Tebrau Teguh.SINGAPORE China Precision Technology (BUY/S$0.435/Target: S$0.58) 3Q06: Demand for Tuner Components exceeded expectations. Norelco UMS Holdings (SGX-MAS RESEARCH INCENTIVE SCHEME) (BUY/S$0.44/Target Price: S$0.60) 3Q06: Better margins from Semiconductor segment. Pine Agritech (BUY/S$0.65/Target: S$0.75) 3Q06: Revenue grew 134% yoy to Rmb475m and net profit surged 157% yoy to Rmb156m. SOS emerged as the biggest earnings contributor. SembCorp Industries (HOLD/S$3.64) 3Q06: Net profit (ex EI) up 16% yoy on higher utilities and marine earnings. Maintain HOLD. Our SOP valuation estimated at S$3.70/share.THAILAND Hemaraj Land and Development (BUY/ Bt0.97/Target: Bt1.48) Registered 100% growth in FY06 even after earnings forecast revision. The stock is trading at the lowest PE compared to ROJANA and AMATA. Power Line Engineering (BUY/Bt7.20/Target: Bt8.05) To increase capital to boost financial needs of the Middle East contracts. Maintain BUYTALKING POINT: Imagi (0585.HK) - HK Pixar in the making
Orlando vacation home rentals
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Orlando is proud to have 52 theme parks and beaches within a short drive of 40 mins. Where to stay? Why not try out Orlando vacation home rentals where it is a one-stop location for all your rental needs.
Do not forget while in Orlando check out Disney World. It is the biggest draw with almost ever recreation for the young and not so young.
Unisteel Technology
3Q06: Unisteel Precision turned profitable
Unisteel reported net profit of S$13.4m (+42.3% yoy) on revenue of S$60.7m (27.9% yoy) in 3Q06. The results were in line with expectations.
Resilient growth. Sales from Fastening & Engineered Components grew 31.5% yoy to S$48.9m. Sales for fasteners expanded by an estimated 20% qoq driven by rising orders from existing customers for HDDs and mobile phones. Cross selling between Unisteel (cold forging), SPI Technology (stamped components) and Unisteel Precision (plastic optics) has started to show results. Unisteel Precision (formally Valen Technologies) provided revenue contribution of S$10.5m. Sales from Surface Treatment Technology gained 14.3% yoy to S$8.8m, in line with growth in the HDD industry. EBITDA margin improved from 28.9% in 2Q06 to 30.6% in 3Q06. Unisteel
Precision turned profitable with earnings of S$1m despite cost incurred to relocate from Bendemeer Industrial Estate to Unisteel’s Loyang plant. Unisteel benefited from economies of scale as 70% of production capacity for fasteners is shifted to Shanghai. Relocating overseas also provided lower effective tax rate of 11.2% against 16.8% last year.
Growing core fastener business. Shipment of fasteners is projected to increase 5% to 10% qoq in 4Q06. Demand for non-HDD fasteners will increase as Motorola gears up for more new model launches in 2H06. Unisteel will also start producing antennas for mobile phones in 1H07. Unisteel Shanghai will undergo qualification by a European mobile phone maker in 4Q06. Contribution from this new customer could come on stream in 1H07.
Uni-LubeTM – special coating for fasteners. Unisteel has commercialised Uni-LubeTM, a friction reducing coating with higher clamp load, after two years of development. Uni-LubeTM reduces the generation of particles to meet more stringent requirement for cleanliness required by perpendicular recording. Production is scheduled to commence in 1Q07.
Vertical integration in China. Unisteel Shanghai was awarded licence for plating, waste treatment and heat treatment. This allows Unisteel Shanghai to provide vertically integrated production and surface treatment processes for fasteners used in HDDs, mobile phones and video game consoles.
Unisteel Precision turned profitable in 2H06. Unisteel Precision has a stable pool of customers such as Motorola, Avago, Kantatsu and Scientific Technologies. It has four light guide projects in production and another five projects under development. Potential is immense particularly for light guides used in low-cost mobile phones, which started contributing in 4Q06. The number of programmes for flashlight lens used in camera phones will increase from one in 3Q06 to three in 4Q06. Orders for pre-moulded semiconductor packages from Avago remain healthy.
Our FY06 net profit forecast remains unchanged at S$48.4m. Our target price
of S$2.63 is based on FY07 PE of 15x (sector average: 8.7x). Unisteel trades
at a premium due to strong cash flow generation ability and attractive dividend
Key Stocks to Consider (Not Induced to buy or Sell)
OCBC is aggressive in its regionalisation drive. It has 19% of its assets in Malaysia, 3% in Indonesia, and stakes in China's Ningbo Commercial Bank and Vietnam's VP Bank. In our view, the market has yet to factor potential China growth into OCBC’s share price valuation. Our price target of S$8.40 is based on 2.6x P/RNTA (revaluation surpluses excluding GE Holdings).
SingPost. The mail segment, with a 73% revenue share, is expected to expand only marginally in the quarters ahead. But the retail segment, with a smaller 12.5% of revenue, is seen to expand more strongly, on the back of expansion in financial services such as EzyCash, which provides unsecured lending to those with annual income of below S$30k. Despite the impending opening of this market segment to commercial banks, the pie remains large enough for SingPost to continue to benefit. SingPost gives a dividend yield of close to 6%. Our DCF valuation of S$1.23 is the target price. See regional morning notes dated 1 Nov 06 for details.
Suntec REITs. Among the Singapore office REITs (excl Allco), Suntec REIT offers the most attractive yield of 5% based on our target price of S$1.64. On a (S-REIT office) comparative yield basis, we think there is still more upside to Suntec's target price. Both K-Reit and CCT currently offer an FY07 yield of slightly over 3% while Suntec REIT yields 5%. At 4% yield (which is 100bp above the 3-month SIBOR), Suntec's target price could hit S$2.05. We expect Suntec REIT to benefit strongly from rising rentals given the tightening office supply in Singapore.
Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) share price has weakened 4% since the release of its results on 2 November. Qoq, 3Q06 net profit of S$44.7m was 22% lower than 2Q06’s S$57.5m due to lower turnover recognition as there was only one jack-up achieving 20% initial revenue recognition threshold as compared with two jack-ups and one semi-submersible rig in 2Q06. We expect 4Q06 net profit to be better than 3Q06’s as four jack-ups and one semi-submersible rig are scheduled to achieve initial revenue recognition in 4Q06. Ytd, SMM has secured S$2.4b worth of O&M contracts. We expect a few large contracts to be announced before the year-end, bringing the contract wins for the full year of 2006 to S$3.5m. Our target price is S$3.90 (17x FY08 earnings, PEG: 1x).
Synear, one of the top three leaders in China's frozen dumpling industry, has a distribution network that covers over 50,000 supermarkets/convenience stores in China. It targets to double its capacity in the next two years, and to expand distribution into tier-2 and tier-3 cities. We forecast 30% earnings CAGR for FY06-08 and recommend BUY with a target price of $1.58.
United Test & Assembly Center. Utilisation rate for DRAM testing has improved from 60-65% in 2Q06 to 70-75% in 3Q06. Prices for DDR2 DRAM should maintain the uptrend till Nov 06 due to persistent tight supply (source: DRAMeXchange). Higher DRAM prices typically have a positive impact on UTAC's share price. Capacity expansion for new Communications customers Freescale and Qualcomm will start to bear fruit in 4Q06. We expect strong growth from UTAC Thailand, driven by capacity expansion for QFN packages.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
gadgets
The latest products in the audio and video from ZTMax are the Mutifunctional Digital Mini Speaker and the Driverless Webcam.
What do you get with these two gadgets? The Driverless Webcam is easy to install with no need for drivers it will work on Mac OS X (10.4.3) or Windows XP (SP2). Called the iMage it cost $54.99. The Multifunctional Digital Mini Speaker, with a battery life of 10 hrs uses the latest in digital technology complete with an mp3 decoder chip and a plug-in SD/MMC Card and with USB support. So why wait check out ZTMax.
Semb Corp
SembCorp Industries (SCI) reported net profit (ex EI) of S$76.9m (+16% yoy) and S$251.3m (+27% yoy) for 3Q06 and 9M06 respectively. Including an exceptional gain of S$392.2m (predominantly from the sale of SembCorp Logistics in 1Q06), the net profit (including EI) for 9M06 was S$643.5m (+202% yoy).The twin growth drivers were Utilities and Marine. In 3Q06, the Utilities business contributed a net profit pf S$66.7m (+96% yoy), while 62%-owned subsidiary SembCorp Marine (SMM) contributed S$27.5m (+36% yoy). However, these profits were offset by a loss of S$25.5m (vs. S$3.2m net profit in 2Q06) in the nviromental & Engineering (EE) business. The loss was due to an impairment made for fixed assets and provision for contracts relating to the local municipal waste collection sector. For 9M06, the Utilities business contributed S$159.4m (+52% yoy), while SMM contributed S$82.6m (+47% yoy). EE made a net loss of S$18.4m compared to a net profit of S$6.4m in 9M05. The earnings growth in the Utilities business was substantially due to a turnaround performance in SMOE, the Offshore Engineering business. Excluding SMOE, the Utilities business registered a flat net profit of S$43.8m in 3Q06. Its Singapore operation performance was impacted by the extension of the maintenance inspection for its Cogen plant, which resumed normal operations on 22 Aug 06. For 9M06, the Utilities business (ex SMOE) posted a net profit of S$139.6m (+4% yoy). SMOE registered a net profit of S$9.7m in 3Q06 from a loss of S$2.3m in 3Q05 and a net profit of S$19.8m in 9M06 from a loss of S$29.0m in 9M05. SMOE was divested to SMM in August as part of SCI's rationalisation exercise to put all its marine and offshore businesses under SMM.SMM had earlier reported a net profit of S$44.7m (+37% yoy) for 3Q06. Q-o-Q, 3Q06 net profit was 22% lower than 2Q06's S$57.5m due to lower turnover recognition as only one jack-up achieving 20% initial revenue recognition threshold as compared to two jack-ups and one semi-submersible rig in 2Q06. We expect 4Q06 net profit to be better than 3Q06's as four jack-ups and one semi-submersible rig are scheduled to achieve initial revenue recognition in 4Q06. The rig business continued to dominate SMM's turnover growth in 3Q06 as evidenced in its turnover breakdown. The rig business was the main engine of growth (turnover +382% yoy) as shiprepair turnover saw a marginal dip of 1% while shipbuilding turnover was down 8% yoy. Ship conversion turnover rose 58% yoy in 3Q06. SMM's orderbook's was S$6.0b as of end-Sep 06, excluding S$343m worth of contracts won in Oct 06.SCI has announced that it will be recognising an exceptional gain of S$155m in 4Q06. This relates to the Inland Revenue Authority's agreement that losses arose from the Solitaire case can now be utilised in group tax relief. We have adjusted our FY06 net profit forecast from S$722m to S$877m for this exceptional gain. Our FY06, FY07 and FY08 net profit (ex EI) forecasts essentially remain unchanged. Our recommendation on SCI remains a HOLD, based our sum-of-the-parts valuation S$3.70/share.
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11/08/2006 09:27:00 AM