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HLF
2Q06 : Net interest income has risen sequentially
HLF reported 2Q06 net profit of S$22.3m, up 17.3% yoy. The growth came on the back of a S$4.4m yoy fall in loan loss provisions. Pre-provisioning profit was down 3.1% yoy. However, on a sequential basis, pre-provisioning profit was up 8.0% yoy.
Sequential expansion of net interest income a positive. Net interest income fell 1.5% yoy to S$42m. Higher interest payable to depositors outstripped the increases in lending rates. But the sequential 4.0% growth in net interest income reflects a recovery.
Loans expanded. HLF recorded a 8.8% yoy loan expansion. But it was a mild 0.1% loan contraction sequentially.
HLF promoted various deposit programmes catering to the savings needs of the heartlanders. Hence, there was a 11.1% yoy and 3.4% qoq deposit growth.
Sequential improvement in pre-provisioning profit. Operating profit was
down 3.1% yoy to S$27.6m. However, lower provisions of S$43k (against S$4.5m in 2Q05) enabled HLF to record a 14.7% yoy rise in PBT. On a
seqential basis however, the results point to improvements : pre-provisioning profit was up 8.0% yoy.
6 ¢ interim dividend declared this quarter, same as for 2Q05.
Expect good dividends ahead. Regulations allow HLF to disburse up to 75% of net profit as dividend. We believe HLF will aim to utilise as much of its Section 44 tax credits as possible. Provisions written back in 1Q05 has given HLF the option to dish out 36 ¢ gross dividend - HLF has declared only 15
$special dividend thus far. Hence, there is another 21 ¢ of special dividend that could potentially be declared over the next few quarters. On an ongoing basis, the 18 ¢ ordinary dividend pa appears to be sustainable. We are forecasting an
attractive FY06 dividend of 33 ¢ per share, giving a yield of 10.3%.
Sequential earnings growth expected. We have lowered our FY06 net profit forecast by a marginal 2% to S$90.4m, due to increases in our forecast of interest expense. On a positive note, however, HLF has taken steps to improve the yield from its loan portfolio (some improvement already seen sequentially) and believe this will continue into 2H06.
Acquisition prospects remain. HLF’s NTA is S$3.12 ps. Our S$5.00 price target is based on 1.6x P/NTA. We believe HLF is an attractive acquisition target by QFBs which want to expand their operations in Singapore. As OCBC paid 1.8x P/NTA for Keppel Capital Holdings and UOB paid 1.6x P/NTA for OUB, we feel that our price target of 1.6x P/NTA is fair.
Source: UOB Kay Hian